My HeyDay

Sometimes I think it is my mission to bring faith to the faithless, and doubt to the faithful


The Spanish Meltdown

Spain’s Economy shrinks at a 7.2% annual rate until March 2009. Here an excerpt:

Despite some recent positive development (decrease in interest rates and prices, fiscal stimulus measures, slight improvement in confidence, ECB purchase of cédulas hipotecarias…), Spain will not recover even as other economies begin to breathe again. The worst year undoubtedly could be 2011, and the unemployment rate by that stage could reach anywhere between 25% and 30% of the labour force if you accept the March 17.5% number as good.

Bottom line, a complete nightmare, with the only bright spot being imminent control of the political system being assumed in Brussels and Frankfurt, since along with the economy the political “automatic stabiliser” system also seems to be broken.
Here is the complete country-briefing. It's plainly scary, even if in my opinion this analysis is misrepresenting the strong interdependency of Spain and the other European economies: as soon as the European demand will recover, factories making pieces integrated in continental supply lines (i.e. cars, planes, appliances) will restart production in Spain and tourists will flow in again.

But still, the idea of being above 20% unemployment for such a long period of time is frightening.

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9 Responses to “The Spanish Meltdown”

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